Mets playoff odds now at 93.3 percent with 35 games to go
The Mets just completed an 8-1 road trip against the Orioles, Rockies and Phillies, winning the final seven games on the road while scoring 73 runs in those seven games, a new franchise record.
They improved their record to 71-56 and now have a run differential of +56 for the season, gaining two full games on the Nationals in their last nine games.
Meanwhile, the Nationals went 6-3 over the same nine-game span.
As such, Baseball Prospectus calculates the Mets odds of making it to the playoffs at 93.3 percent, a season-high.
The Nationals now have an 8.2 percent chance of making it to the playoffs.
“Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team’s year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule,” according to MLB.com.
Between the two clubs, the Mets now have a slightly weaker schedule, as the Nationals have to face the Orioles and Cardinals for six games, whereas the only team the Mets will face which is over .500 the rest of the way are the Yankees in mid-september.
In addition, the Nationals just lost Denard Span again to hip/back problems, and manager Matt Williams suggested it was unlikely Span would play again this season.
That’s significant because the Nationals are 36-25 when Span plays, 28-37 with Span out.
Assuming the Mets go 18-17 over their final 35 games of the season – which would be alarming given their schedule – the Nationals would still have to go 26-10 to overtake the Mets and win the division outright with no tiebreaker game.
The reality is unless the Nationals sweep the Mets in their series in Washington beginning September 7, their chances of the last weekend of the season between the two clubs even mattering won’t be very high, especially if the Mets continue or exceed the pace they’re currently on, which is to win 90 games in 2015.
That would mean the Mets go 19-16 down the stretch. The Nationals would then need to go 27-9 to outpace the Mets. Assuming that pace improves, the Nationals simply have to win that many more games, and the clock is running out fast for them sitting 6 1/2 games out with 36 games to play.
But the Mets can’t take their remaining schedule for granted. Yes, they will play the Braves, Phillies and Marlins a lot down the stretch, and the Mets have feasted on sub-.500 teams and teams within their own division. But they only have one realistic path to the playoffs, and that’s through winning the division.
So, it’s critical the Mets continue to play pedal to the metal, aggressive baseball until they clinch to ensure that happens, whether that’s game 155, 160, or 162.