Clearly, the Mets are willing to trade Wheeler under the right circumstances this summer. Obviously, they were closing to moving him to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez before that deal fell apart late Wednesday. They were also willing to deal Wheeler to the Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki.
Along with Jay Bruce, the common denominator is all three of these players are controllable beyond 2015, and not rentals, which is seemingly a circumstances which qualifies him to be dealt.
Now, that doesn’t mean Wheeler will ultimately be dealt, nor does that exclude Wheeler from being dealt for a rental, necessarily.
But why all of a sudden are they willing to move a player who was a part of their long-term blueprint? Because he’s now the equivalent of a long-term prospect in their organization.
By the time Wheeler returns, it will be 2016. But the time he doesn’t have an innings limit, it will be 2018. That’s 2 1/2 years until the Mets can hopefully benefit from Wheeler’s talent again. He went from being a short-term solution before the season to the equivalent of a prospect in Single-A thanks to having Tommy John Surgery in March.
Of course he isn’t a prospect by definition, but he becomes expendable because of his timeline thanks to the quick rises of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, plus their control of Jon Niese over the same span.
And, he will be costlier at that time as well.
At that point, he will be knee deep in his arbitration years, as is the case with Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and Matt Harvey. All of those salaries will be rising through arbitration.
Are they right in their view? It’s certainly a 3D view and very creative ahead of the deadline. But there’s no way to know if they’re right until they see what he is 2 1/2 years from now.
So while it’s a gamble from a long-term pitching perspective to deal Wheeler, the Mets are making a good gamble and a safe gamble if they ultimately move him for the right player back.
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2 responses to “Why the Mets are willing to trade Zack Wheeler”
I’m going to respectfully disagree with you on the point that it will be “2 1/2 years until the Mets can hopefully benefit from Wheeler’s talent again.” There will be innings limits if Zack returns next summer but that does not mean he won’t be a valuable piece in the Mets’ rotation. Granted he may not be as dominant a pitcher he was pre-surgery, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to be a quality pitcher for the final three months of 2016. Matt Harvey has bounced back well even if he hasn’t achieved the phenomenal success he had earlier. It’s clearly a long road back from UCL replacement surgery– innings limits, dead arm episodes, control issues, and stamina concerns are all things that factor into achieving full recovery. Although the organization has not publicly stated Harvey’s innings threshold for 2015, it is believed to be around 200. I’m sure many qualified baseball people would say that’s a significant number– maybe even too aggressive.
The Mets have two arms on the staff right now who will likely reach their limits before the end of the regular season. Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard will likely reach the bottom of the tank in late September. It will take some creative shuffling to get either of these guys meaningful post-season innings. If that can’t be done the Mets will need to make the difficult decision to throw away the innings cap, at the potential expense of the long-term health of their star hurlers. Steven Matz, if he’s healthy enough to contribute, will help lessen the impact but not eliminate it. This is a numbers game that will occur again in 2016 with Matz’ IP limit. Albeit, the impact will be less hindering than it is now. This is where Wheeler will become more valuable to this team than he would be to bring a Jay Bruce or Yoenis Cespedes here.
Every organization owes it to their fans to compete. But if it’s unrealistic that the team will have the horses to compete come October, it’s fruitless. This team is not built to win now despite the tremendous showing of their young arms. A trade to improve the team should be made if it doesn’t impact the ability to dominate in 2016. I’m not advocating giving up on this season but the real focus needs to be on next season when the hinderances will be less pronounced. If Wheeler is the piece needed to bring in someone viewed as a cornerstone offensive player for the next several seasons, make the move. I’m just not sure the names we heard so far fit that description.
#LGM
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I feel like the emergence of Fullmer makes them think he will be ready before Wheeler
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