With the Mets winning their third game in a row against the Rockies and the Nationals losing two of their first three games against the Dodgers in their series in Los Angeles, the New York has improved their lead to 3 1/2 games over the Nationals for first place in the National League East.
Baseball Prospectus now lists New York’s odds of reaching the playoffs at 73.2 percent, while Washington’s has decreased to 36.6 percent.
However, as the Cubs and Pirates continue to expand their lead in the National League Wild Card race, the Mets only have a 3.7 percent chance of winning a Wild Card. So their path to the postseason is likely to be through the division, which is preferable anyway since that guarantees them at least three games with at least one of them being at home.
“Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team’s year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule,” according to MLB.com.
Just Mets 