Baseball Prospectus has calculated the probability of the Mets earning a playoff berth at 67.1 percent as play opens on Friday.
They have a 60.9 percent chance of winning the National League East, although they only have a 6.2 percent chance of winning a Wild Card, based on their simulations.
“Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team’s year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule,” according to MLB.com.
The Mets current run differential is +15, but they also have one of the softer schedules in the league over the final third of the season.
But it’s clear the Mets straightest path to the playoffs is through the division. They play the Pirates three times, but they are finished with the Cubs and Giants, two teams that would be ahead of them in the Wil Card race. It’s also prudent to win the division, as they’d guarantee themselves three playoff games with at least one of them being at Citi Field.
Meanwhile, the Nationals still have games against the Dodgers and Giants as well as the Cardinals and the Mets. So while their schedule is somewhat more difficult than the Mets down the stretch, they can certainly have an impact on their own chances to win the Wild Card, as well as the Mets chances should the Nationals eventually take back first place in the division.
Of course, all of this talk is meaningless if the Mets don’t take care of their own business.
Just Mets 