Just Mets

The unofficial second half gets under way for the Mets against the Cardinals in St. Louis tomorrow.

In other words, the pennant race – and the real test for the 2015 Mets – officially begins.

The Mets are currently on pace for 85 wins in 2015. They’ve done that with Davis Wright missing virtually the entire year, and Travis d’Arnaud playing in only 21 percent of the team’s games as well.

Unfortunately, that win total probably will not be enough to earn a playoff berth. In fact, according to MLB.com/Baseball Prospectus, the Mets have an 11.9 percent chance to win the Wild Card, a 38.9 percent chance to get to the Wild Card game, and a 26.8 percent chance to win the National League East as currently constructed.

That doesn’t mean the front office should mail in the season at all. They’re only 3-5 wins off of what will likely be required to win a Wild Card or overtake the Nationals in the National League East.

There are four things the Mets must improve upon in order to net the necessary wins to get to the postseason in 2015…

Better run prevention.

No matter what the Mets do before the non-waiver trade deadline on July 31, this will not morph into a lineup which scores five runs per game. The margin for error will only grow modestly, meaning the Mets must improve upon their ability to prevent runs. They’ve allowed 29 unearned runs through the first 89 games, which is not acceptable. What’s worse, that doesn’t account for the plays not made (inability to turn double plays, misplays due to a lack of range, poor throwing, etc.) which result in earned runs against the pitchers.

The Mets are a poor defensive team, and that’s putting it nicely. Their infield defense has improved since Sandy Alderson finally relented and moved Wilmer Flores to second base, Ruben Tejada to shortstop, and Daniel Murphy to third.

But in the end, it’s the same people standing elsewhere on the diamond. It remains to be seen if this glue will hold on the current alignment.

And, that doesn’t include the Mets outfield defense.

It was expected Curtis Granderson would have his throwing issues, and that explains why teams run around the diamond against him and why he leads the team in outfield assists. But I’m willing to bet teams take the extra base more on Granderson than against most other outfielders. Again, it’s an issue, but not unexpected.

Michael Cuddyer has had his share of issues in left field as well, although they aren’t particularly glaring. In fact, he has probably played to expectation in left field this season, although that isn’t necessarily good since he’s been below league average. But now, he’s dealing with a bone bruise in his left knee which will only negatively impact his range more than it was already limited.

The most disappointing player in the outfield is Juan Lagares. He was signed to play Gold Glove defense, and he has done anything but do that. His range is obviously limited, and his throwing just hasn’t been good at all dating all the way back to spring training.

In fact, advanced metrics suggest he’s only recently become league average to slightly above league average defensively. With his poor on-base percentage (particularly against right-handed pitching at .267) and on-going poor plate discipline, it’s fair to question how much his elbow and side injury are playing a role, and whether or not the Mets can afford to run him out there everyday in the second half.

The problem, of course, is a lack of a true alternative to Lagares, and the fact they’ve made a long- term commitment in his ability to play defense. They’re clearly banking on his defense continuing to improve that masking his throwing issues, which is a clear problem at this point.

All-in-all, the Mets need to prevent more runs from scoring. That comes with limiting the mistakes, executing routine plays, turning more double plays, and so on.

Keep that pitching strong, productive and mentally sharp.

Make no mistake – the Mets are where they are because of their remarkable, championship-caliber pitching staff, which starts with their entire rotation (even without Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz), and ending with their team-MVP in closer Jeurys Familia.

The obvious reason why the Mets have employed various iterations of a six-man rotation is to manage the health of the arms among their starting pitchers by limiting their innings. But another reason is to keep them as fresh and as strong as possible down the stretch of the season.

Remember, only Bartolo Colon has pitched meaningful games in September and October. Only Colon and Jon Niese have pitched a full big league season among those currently in the starting rotation.

So, the trial is two-fold: maintaining the stamina and health of the starting pitchers, but also getting the younger guys to successful deal with the grind and pressures of pennant race baseball at this level.

Get a bat, lengthen the lineup.

No matter how well the defense plays or how well the pitchers pitch, scoring 3.4 runs per game ( the second-worst mark in baseball) is going to leave the Mets on the outside looking in come game 162.

Another way to put that is the Mets need a bat – maybe two – and right now.

They actually needed a bat two months ago, and should’ve prepared for David Wright’s injury to be longer-term, which it has ultimately become.

One bat would at least deepen bench, as it would move someone who is starting that shouldn’t to a place he belongs. That helps create more quality options late for the manager (the bench is beyond terrible, by the way) which in turn can help make up some of the deficit to get this offense to score four runs per game, or just about league average.

Of course, getting a primary bat to play everyday and a secondary option for the bench strengthens the offense even more.

A superstar would be nice, a juggernaut 1-8 would be nicer, but it’s not practical to expect simply because the Mets remain unwilling to deal the pitcher (or pitchers) it would take to land that type of player.

But again, with this pitching staff, “just enough offense” would be enough to get the Mets into the playoffs. They need a player who is capable of making more contact, a guy with a versatile bat capable of getting bunts down, moving runners over or sending him first-to- third with a hit and run, or just someone who’s gutsy enough to come up with a big hit late to tie or give the Mets the lead.

And, with this pitching staff, this has the potential of being a very dangerous team in the tournament.

It may seem like this is downplaying the club’s needs offensively, but it isn’t. The need for offense is apparent and has been apparent for two months. But the Mets are 40-3 when leading after seven innings, and 34-5 when they score four or more runs.

In other words, if they can be league average or score “just enough” runs, they can be a very special team. But they have to get there, and they’re not there yet.

People who are already on the team must step up.

The Mets can get this championship-caliber pitching everyday for the next 73 games, can play Gold Glove-caliber defense all around the diamond, and get the bat they need. But Lucas Duda absolutely must perk up, Cuddyer and Granderson must be more consistent, and they need to at least get Travis d’Arnaud back on the field and keep him on the field if they are going to survive this tumultuous second half.

One new face isn’t going to be a savior – if the other guys don’t start hitting, the opposition just won’t pitch to the new guy, especially down the stretch when the opposition also must win every game possible.

If that doesn’t happen, October won’t happen. Period.