Nothing is guaranteed. That’s the number one rule in sports.
When we think one scenario will pan out a certain way, there’s a good chance it doesn’t. There’s no other fan base than can relate to that statement like the fans of the New York Mets.
This is the same team that once drafted and developed Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry to lead them to the promise land of countless championships in the middle-to-late 1980s, only to see their demons turn into their demise after just a single World Championship.
Then there was “Generation K,” the last group of promising Mets starting pitchers who were expected to dominate the late 1990’s, only to end up flopping before ever enjoying a single ounce of success.
In the end, the hype was not able to stand the test of time.
Mets fans are once again being sold on the notion this franchise is going to ride down the Canyon of Heroes on the backs of their stellar and young starting pitching. The possible rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz is something that any fan of baseball would clamor over, regardless of the team he or she roots for.
After all, a rotation in which three or four of the starters could be dubbed an ace, it’s a pretty remarkable thing.
These five Met pitchers, albeit two acquired through trades before they reached the majors, have all in someway been developed in the Mets system.
They’re the Mets version of the, “Core Four,” if you will, only there are five of them..
And, Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, Dicky Scott and now Ian Levin all deserve praise and recognition for developing these players over the last five years.
They’re the fantastic five that will take the Mets to numerous postseasons and championships, right?
Well, hold on a second.
Every single member of the Mets rotation has experienced a health problem in their career. Harvey, deGrom, Matz and now Wheeler and have all had Tommy John Surgery at some point during their young careers. Wheeler is not expected to return until the All-Star Break in 2016.
In addition, last May, Syndergaard was placed on the DL with a flexor pronator strain in his right elbow, which is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery. He also dealt with a scare late in Spring Training in that very same gem of an elbow.
And once again, Matz is shelved for what will likely be 4-6 weeks – if not longer – with a torn lat muscle on his left side.
It’s these injuries – along with the cold business of baseball – which serve as a reminder, and lead to a sobering possibility these pitchers may never get to pitch together, or will not get to pitch together for very long.
In reality, will we ever see the five all in the rotation at once? If so, for how long?
It’s actually a very compelling question to ponder.
The earliest all five of Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz will realistically be pitching together will be next June or July, assuming they can all get and remain healthy. The earliest Wheeler will be firing on all cylinders will be 2017. But by 2016, Harvey will be in the middle of his first season of arbitration, and both deGrom and Wheeler will be approaching their first year of arbitration eligibility.
In other words, the clock is ticking, and starting to tick loudly.
Assuming they are all retained, the financial commitment it’ll take to keep these five starters – even through their arbitration years – will be steep if they continue to pitch to their expected abilities. Harvey’s free agency is following fast than the others – that’s coming in 2019. Wheeler’s free agency is in 2020, deGrom in 2021.
Will the Mets commit the necessary financial resources and years to retain these five pitchers? Is that even wise in the business of baseball, when so many pitchers diminish in the middle-to-late years of those long-term contracts?
Yes, it might be a premature discussion right now, but it’s fair to question if their best laid plan can be truly banked on in the years to come.
Again, nothing in sports, or in life for that matter, is guaranteed.
Andrew Harts covers the Mets for MLB.com as their real-time correspondent. He provides content for MLB.com, the Mets social media group, and Cut4.
To follow Andrew on Twitter, click here.
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