Jon Niese has had a renaissance of sorts on the mound of the last month of baseball, posting a 2.41 ERA while allowing 49 base runners in 33 innings over his last six starts since June 5.
This resurgence from Niese came after what was arguably the greatest trial of his eight-year career when he posted a 9.00 ERA in the four starts prior to June 5 while allowing 39 base runners and five home runs with a 1.009 opposing OPS.
The easy conclusion to draw is Niese has pitched his way onto the radar of clubs needing help for the middle of their rotation.
But, not so fast.
In a report for the Daily News, Andy Martino polled several industry experts who aren’t intrigued by Niese’s recent performance.
“I would assume GMs wouldn’t overreact to recent performance, and would consider the long term picture along with health and the financial commitment,” one person told Martino.
“It changes nothing for me. Stuff has gotten lighter every year. The Mets are going to tell everyone it’s as good as ever to keep trade value high,” a National League executive said.
Both are certainly very valid measurements of Niese. There’s no question he’s pitched better over the last month. In fact, he’s been a lot better. But Niese will probably regress more towards his career marks at some point, and that point could begin sometime before the trade deadline.
There’s also the issue with his medicals. He has said all year long he feels as good as he has in years. Having said that, there’s no denying he has had rotator cuff and elbow problems in the last couple of years. It has been a sticking point in the past, and as the executive told Martino, his stuff isn’t as good as it once was to the point his curveball has more or less become a defunct weapon in his arsenal, relying more on a two-seamer and a cutter for success instead.
There’s also the issue of a potentially saturation market for middle-tier pitching this month, not to mention the fact there are some top shelf starting pitchers – such as Cole Hamels – who could also be available and are far more attractive for the bigger market clubs to acquire before considering the options at Niese’s level.
As such, if the Mets are intent on moving Niese – which remains to be seen at this point – they may have to wait until July 31, if not later. He could be a candidate to clear trade waivers in August considering he’s owed about $13 million through the end of 2016.
No matter what, Niese’s situation should remain independent of trying to acquire offense.
Obviously, the Mets would prefer to get a bat or someone of significance for Niese, but the greatest return for the club could be the roster spot he vacates, or even some minor leaguers to replenish their farm system.
Just Mets 