Just Mets

The miracle experiment that was Lucas Duda for the better part of 14 months has taken a rather dramatic turn south over the last five weeks, and is a huge reason for the Mets deep and dark malaise at the plate.

Duda is 17-for-his-last-102 at the plate. He has five extra-base hits, one of which is a home run during that span. He’s struck out nearly three times as much as he’s walked since May 31 with an astonishingly low .530 OPS in 28 games during that span.

He looks more like the pre-2014 version of Lucas Duda right now.

“It’s a pretty prolonged stretch for me, just because I’m not doing the things I’m capable of,” Duda explained to Zack Braziller of the New York Post after Thursday’s 6-1 loss to the Cubs.

There is some science that can be offered as an explanation for Duda’s massive problems at the plate.

First off, the opposition has essentially has stopped throwing Duda fastballs with regularity. He is now seeing a steady diet of breaking balls, specifically down, and he is swinging at way too many of them outside the strike zone now. But he’s also swinging at too many pitches outside the zone and not making any sort of consistent or significant contact on those pitches.

That has led him to make less contact in general and reduce his swing rate at pitches inside the zone over the last month by significant margins.

But he’s also missing some very hittable pitches inside the zone as well, specifically fastballs which he was previously crushing earlier in the year. His contact rate inside the zone is down five percent from his season average over the last month, possibly suggesting his swing is too long and his timing is well off as well.

“It’s frustrating, obviously, when guys go out and pitch well and we’re not able to capitalize with runners in scoring position. It’s very frustrating,” Duda said.

That frustration could be a root cause of these problems.

In a time he has minimal protection around him and the team isn’t scoring a lot of runs, Duda is in a position where he absolutely must produce. That only adds to the pressure, but it’s clear he’s trying to do way too much at the plate to try and carry the team on his shoulders.

The Mets can go out and make acquisitions. They can call up more players from the minor leagues. They can keep getting stellar performances top to bottom from the pitching staff. But if they can’t get the people who are already here to hit and compete offensively – which they cannot right now regardless of the opponent – not much is going to change.

And, it all starts – and maybe ends – with Duda.

“I’m telling you as I sit here, when Lucas Duda breaks out, it’s going to be big,” Terry Collins said on Thursday.

The Mets better hope that happens soon.