Late in spring training, the Mets and Lucas Duda were engaged in negotiations for a long-term contract, but talks ended just before the regular season began at Duda’s request.
By engaging with Duda, the Mets were assuming some risk if he had agreed to terms. They were betting 2014 wasn’t a fluke, which was a reasonable concern considering he only found himself in his age-28 season. But in doing so they felt they could control Duda through his arbitration seasons and his first free agent year at or below market value.
In addition, agreeing with Duda now would have created cost certainty with him as well as give them budgetary certainty in future seasons for other players, especially those like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Wheeler who will soon reach their arbitration-eligible years.
There was an equivalent risk for Duda if he had agreed to a contract extension, although securing a long-term agreement bought him guaranteed financial security. But he was risking taking an under-market contract during the prime years of his career in exchange for such security.
The club apparently offered Duda a three-year contract worth around $30 million during spring training, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network and CBS Sports. Duda gambled and rejected that proposal, after which talks were tabled until after the season.
It looks like Duda’s gamble might be paying off, potentially at the expense of the Mets.
In an era starved for power, Duda’s on his way to another potential 30 home run, 90 RBI campaign in his age-29 season. Much of that pace has been aided by a recent power surge from Duda, who has hit six of his nine home runs in his last six games.
It will be fascinating to see how this situation eventually unfolds. Duda was hoping an agreement could be secured before Opening Day, which suggests he could be enthusiastic about getting a deal done with the Mets.
On the flip side, knowing they now might have to up the ante for Duda, will the Mets be as energetic about getting a long-term deal done with their star first baseman, who will be in his age-30 season in 2016?
Time will tell.
Duda, 29, is earning $4.2 million in 2015, his second year of arbitration eligibility. He is under team control through 2017, after which he can become a free agent.
He hit .253 with a .349 OBP and .481 SLG with 30 home runs and 92 RBI in 596 plate appearances in 2014.
Through 48 games in 2015, Duda is hitting .304 with a .397 OBP and .550 SLG with nine home runs and 24 RBI in 199 plate appearances.
Just Mets 