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Jon Niese had been incredibly lucky over his first six starts. 

He had produced a 1.95 ERA and went 3-2 during that span despite allowing 54 base runners and six unearned runs in only 37 innings of work, an average of 1.46 base runners per inning.

Niese had even said over those five starts that despite finding a way to get the job done, it hadn’t been, “pretty.”

Well, his luck has run out over his last two starts.

Niese got knocked out in the sixth inning on Tuesday night, and to use his verbiage, it was not pretty at all. He allowed eight earned runs on 11 hits with a walk and a strikeout and was removed in the sixth inning before he could retire a batter.

The eight runs allowed tie his career-high. It was the sixth time in his career he’s allowed eight runs in a game, last on May 11, 2013. The 11 hits Niese allowed are tied for the second-most he’s allowed in a game – also allowed 11 hits last July 21 against the Mariners.

“All year I don’t think I’ve been into a real good groove,” Niese told Mike Puma of the New York Post after the loss. “It seems like every outing this year it’s been a fight and some of the outings I was able to get through it. The last two have been rough.”

Indeed, they have been rough. He has a 9.53 ERA in his last two starts. He’s allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits in only 11 1/3 innings over that span. He has averaged 1.89 base runners per inning over those two starts as well.

“He didn’t have his two-seam fastball,” Terry Collins explained. “Every time it was called for, it either went straight or he cut it. He struggled with it all night long. Now you’re talking about nothing to counter the cutter, so it was one of those nights he just didn’t have his stuff.”

He didn’t have anything last night, including very much velocity or life on his pitches. He struggled with his arm slot again which kept him from getting on top of anything. Instead, his cutter wasn’t biting down and inside and was left floating up and over the plate, his two seamer stayed over the outside part of the plate, and his curveball was staying in the zone too long, hanging above the knees in most instances.

At one point early, Anthony Recker was seen talking to Niese, trying to get him to get on top of his pitches more, but that went for naught, clearly. Consistency with his arm slot has been an apparent issue all year, and now he’s unable to fight his way through whatever is troubling him either physically, mechanically or both.

There’s a contingent of fans calling for the Mets to remove Niese from the rotation and replace him with Steven Matz. For now anyway, that’s probably not in the cards. The time will come for Matz to push someone out of the rotation. Niese may very well be that placeholder. But in the case of Niese, it’s easier said than done.

Matz has been phenomenal at Triple-A this year, he’s probably big league ready, and it’s certainly fair to argue his ceiling is higher than Niese’s is. However, the team wants him to accumulate more innings at Triple-A, and gain the experience they feel is necessary before considering him for a promotion.

The team typically likes to have their starters accrue at least 150 innings above Double-A before getting here. That’s not terribly uncommon in the industry, although there have been exceptions. But Matz – who still needs 29 innings at Las Vegas to reach that threshold – lacks a lot of professional experience in the minor leagues as well thanks to an extended absence from Tommy John Surgery. That plays a role – Sandy Alderson was very open about that when they decided to promote Noah Syndergaard over Matz two weeks ago.

There’s also the issue with Niese in the immediate term. Much like Dillon Gee, Niese doesn’t seem like a guy who can thrive in a bullpen role, and he would be an incredibly overpaid left-handed long reliever who may or may not provide any kind of value in that role.

Collins himself said on Tuesday night he does not see Niese going to the bullpen.

The Mets could consider trading Niese too. But he hasn’t pitched particularly well, he has a recent history of arm problems, and he’s owed $16.5 million through 2017. It’s hard to imagine there is much of a demand for a pitcher like that today.

So, assuming he’s healthy and stays healthy, for now it seems the Mets have to hope Niese can work his way out of this funk and buy them the time they need to get to the next mile marker with their young pitching.