Coming off of a series victory against the last-place Brewers, the Mets are 22-16 (the 3rd best record in the National League) and lead the NL East over the Nationals by half a game. May hasn’t been the kindest of months to these Mets, as they’re 7-8 so far this month and have seen their division lead decrease over the last two-plus weeks.
Now, after back-to-back wins, the team is feeling a little better about themselves, as their pitching has been great for the entire season, and they’ve scored a combined 19 runs in their last two games. Still though, the real test for this club begins tonight, as they’re going from facing a team with baseball’s worst record, to the team with baseball’s best…
The St. Louis Cardinals.
Year after year people count out this Cardinals team and year after year they prove people wrong. They don’t have much of an offense, they lost ace Adam Wainwright for the season to a torn achilles and yet here they are, at 25-12, with the best record in the league and a four-game lead in their division.
With the Nationals breathing down their necks, the Mets have a chance to gain some separation in the standings–that is, if Washington decides to cool off at any point–and make a statement over the next four games against these Cardinals at home, where New York is 15-4 this season.
I think the Mets have a chance to do some damage. While the Cardinals have continued to have baseball’s best record and remain afloat, things haven’t been all great since the loss of their ace. In 22 games since Wainwright went down on April 25th, the Cardinals are 14-8, the 4th best record in the NL in that span, however their starting pitching has been vulnerable.
While they’ve faired well, in those 22 games sans-Wainwright, St. Louis has only had a starting pitcher go more than six innings in five starts, and their bullpen leads the National League in innings pitched with 83 in that span. The key for the Mets this week will be to get to the Cardinals starters while they can. Yes, St. Louis’ bullpen leads the NL in innings pitched since April 25th, but while you’d think at some point it would be too taxing, right now that isn’t the case as they also lead the league in bullpen ERA since the injury.
With Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Bartolo Colon and Jacob deGrom going in this series, the Mets best have a stiff test ahead of them. While those four starters have a combined ERA of 3.00 this season, they are facing a Cardinals team that is 13th in MLB in runs scored, 5th in batting average, 4th in on-base percentage, 10th in slugging percentage and 6th in OPS. In addition to these already impressive offensive numbers, this team doesn’t strike out much either, as they have K’d the 13th fewest teams in baseball this season.
St. Louis likes to rack up their hits and get on base via the walk as well, but when they are on base, they’re not much of a threat on the base paths. One area in which this Cardinals team does struggle offensively is there, as they rank 20th in baseball this season with 17 stolen bases. The more alarming stat? They’ve been caught 11 times–that’s a stolen base percentage of just 61!
Not only will the Mets not likely have to worry about the stolen base, but the longball shouldn’t be a problem this week either, as the Cards rank 20th in the majors in that category as well. Their leading home run hitter is Matt Carpenter, who hit eight home runs all of last season, with seven–one more than the Mets home run leader, Wilmer Flores.
It’s not going to be easy for the Mets as they face a tough offense and what has, for now, been a shutdown bullpen. However, if the Mets can get to these Cardinals starters early and put some runs on the board, this St. Louis team does not have the power-hitting prowess to allow them to come back in games easily. If the Mets can score early and often, I like their chances this week to make a statement against baseball’s best.
Just Mets 