Just Mets

With just three days before the Mets break camp, the Mets Opening Day roster – and bullpen specifically – became a little clearer on Monday.

The bullpen in particular went from having up to four vacancies to basically none in a matter of hours on Monday with the acquisitions of LHP’s Alex Torres and Jerry Blevins. These acquisitions also likely eliminated several candidates vying for spots in the big league bullpen, even with Vic Black likely headed to the disabled list to start the year.

However, this roster could look a lot different on Opening Day than it will look at the end of April, or even April 15 if Daniel Murphy, Vic Black, and Bobby Parnell return by that date.

So, here’s my latest projection for Opening Day along with various scenarios which could unfold soon after…

Starting eight

It seems very unlikely Murphy will be ready for Opening Day. He performed fielding drills and ran on Monday, but he isn’t running in minor league games as of yet. No matter what, there’s no chance Murphy will appear in another big league game this spring – he will only appear in minor league games through the end of camp. That way, they can backdate his stint on the disabled list by up to ten days before Opening Day, meaning if he’s ready, he can return by the first weekend of the season.

Having said that, it seems likely Daniel Muno will make the team as the backup infielder, and Ruben Tejada will get the honor to start at second on Opening Day.

However, I have a hunch this situation will be in flux until Murphy returns. It’s fair to think Muno will get some starts as well, which could help determine who stays and who goes when it comes time to activate Murphy. I’ll get into that later in this post…

As for Matt Reynolds, he has most certainly earned a roster spot. He has been fantastic all spring at the plate and has shown no problems defensively. However, he has to play regularly, and unless Murphy’s injury is long-term (which it doesn’t appear to be), that just won’t happen out of the gate here. It sucks, but he’s valuable and so he needs to continue to develop in an everyday role. So, he will likely go back to Las Vegas, play shortstop full-time and serve as an insurance policy to Wilmer Flores.

Projection: David Wright, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, Lucas Duda, Michael Cuddyer, Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, Travis d’Arnaud

Starting Rotation

The front four are set in stone heading into the regular season, assuming everyone remains healthy.

If I had to take an educated guess, Dillon Gee will ultimately win the last spot in the rotation. How long he’s there – and how long he’s on the team – is another story.

If Rafael Montero wins the job (which still seems unlikely), the Mets might get more out of Gee if they trade him. Gee has never pitched in relief on a regular basis before, he had trouble adapting to the role earlier in camp, they still don’t know if he can do it, and there’s no time left in camp to experiment.

Gee could get moved at some point soon anyway. If that happens, the Mets can move Montero into the rotation and free up a spot in the bullpen for one of Bobby Parnell or Vic Black. How the Mets fit both in the bullpen remains to be seen, but I’ll will talk about that next.

Projection: Bartolo Colon, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee

Left side of the bullpen

The Mets went from having next to no legitimate answers to suddenly having numerous options for left-handed relief after acquiring Blevins and Torres on Monday.

Sandy Alderson said on Monday both Blevins and Torres will be on the team (both are out of options anyway). Interestingly enough, Alderson also said Sean Gilmartin – the team’s Rule 5 selection this past December – is also very likely to make the club out of camp.

That means the Mets will more than likely carry three relievers in the bullpen on Opening Day.

The question is how long the Mets do this, especially with Parnell and Black coming back relatively soon. My guess is the Mets would drop Gilmartin and return him to the Twins. However, he’s historically been very effective against lefties in the minors, and he’s been equally as effective against lefties this spring. If he performs early in the season, the Mets will have a difficult decision to make when they get one of their big right-handed relievers back from the DL.

Projection: Sean Gilmartin, Jerry Blevins, Alex Torres

Right side of the bullpen

Vic Black threw another bullpen session on Monday, but Sandy Alderson hinted once again on Monday Black is very likely headed to the disabled list to start the year. But, his spot on the roster will now be taken by one of Blevins or Torres. That spells trouble for Zack Thornton and Buddy Carlyle and their chances to make the team on Opening Day.

With Thornton, they can just re-assign him to minor league camp, but Carlyle is in camp on a minor league contract and can opt-out of his deal, meaning the Mets could lose someone who was really good out of their bullpen last summer.

As for Montero, it’s been clear for a couple of weeks he will make the team, but only recently has it become a question to what his role will be. Assuming no more trades are made between now and Opening Day (that might not be a fair assumption) it still makes more sense to start him in the bullpen. That way, they have an emergency starter at their disposal, rather than having to get someone on a red-eye flight from the west coast to make a start. And as I said before, Montero can slot right into the rotation with next to no adjustment period if the club trades a starter. Terry Collins did tell reporters on Monday while Montero is making a run for a spot in the rotation, he could certainly see Montero in a short-relief role to start the year.

The other three right-handers – Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, and Carlos Torres – are locks for the bullpen, assuming they stay healthy between now and Opening Day.

Projection: Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Rafael Montero, Carlos Torres

Bench

There had been some whispers Eric Campbell was competing for a job early in camp, but it seems like his job is now secured as a right-handed utility player off the bench. He will join Anthony Recker and John Mayberry Jr. as the other righties off the bench.

As I said earlier in this post. it seems like the stars are aligned for Muno to go north with the club. It’s easy to assume Muno will be optioned back to the minors when Murphy is ready to return, but I could foresee a scenario where he could stay as the backup infielder.

A couple of weeks ago, I wondered if Muno could provide a better value to Tejada as a utility infielder off the bench. Muno is faster, has more power, is a switch hitter, and is 1/4 of the price. He has shown off this versatility with his .356 average, his three extra-base hits, his four walks and some exceptional defense in 22 games this spring. And, considering he’s a switch hitter, he can serve as another left-handed bat off the bench along with Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who is now a lock for the roster with Matt den Dekker traded to Washington.

It’s also worth noting Tejada’s $1.9 million salary is not guaranteed for the year since he agreed to his deal through the arbitration process. So, we will see how this situation plays out over the next 3-4 weeks…

Projection: John Mayberry Jr., Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, Daniel Muno