Just Mets

The Mets break camp exactly one week from today, and head to Arlington for a two game exhibition between the Rangers for one final tune-up before Opening Day at Nationals Park.

Just over three weeks ago, Sandy Alderson said this was one of the most static rosters the Mets have had in recent years, meaning there were very few job openings this spring.

The Mets seemed set in their rotation and most of their bullpen, with only one job on the left side of the bullpen up for grabs. The 25th roster spot – or the last spot on the bench – may have been up for debate, but it certainly seemed like it was Eric Campbell’s job to lose.

But with what seems like a blink of an eye, up to four bullpen spots are available, the fifth starter job is not entirely set, and Campbell potentially has competition for his bench spot in Daniel Muno, who jumped on the team’s radar thanks to Daniel Murphy’s hamstring injury.

Things change, and the roster doesn’t seem so static anymore. Here’s a deeper dive into the Mets current issues as well as my latest roster projection:

Starting eight

For the most part, nothing has really changed at the top of the depth chart outside of the starting rotation, outside of a few scares. Assuming everyone gets/remains healthy, things will appear as expected when the Mets take the field against the Nationals in 11 days.

Projection: David Wright, Wilmer Flores, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, Michael Cuddyer, Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson, Travis d’Arnaud

Left side of the bullpen

The left side of the bullpen has looked better recently. Sean Gilmartin has allowed only one baserunner to reach base in his last three outings, and both Scott Rice and Dario Alvarez have allowed only two baserunners to reach in their last four outings. But the start of each of their springs were incredibly ugly, and with Spring Training being what it is, there’s nothing real clear cut about any of these three candidates.

Of the three candidates, I expect Gilmartin has the best shot to go north with the club. He’s a Rule 5 selection, meaning he has to stay on the active roster the entire year, or be offered back to his former club – the Twins – for $25,000, or half of the amount they paid for him in December. He’s shown a propensity to get left-handed hitters out in the minors, and has held lefties to a .188 average so far this spring. Hopefully that continues.

But, Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the Mets feel optimistic about making some kind of acquisition before Opening Day to address this need. That might mean they could go with Gilmartin and whoever they might acquire, whether it’s Brian Matusz or someone like Sam Freeman from the Cardinals, who is out of options and is reportedly unlikely to make the team. Matusz would go further to solidify this situation, but it’s not clear the Mets will be able to acquire him right now.

For now, my projection won’t assume an acquisition will be made.

Projection: Sean Gilmartin, Scott Rice

Right side of the bullpen

When camp opened, it seemed Dillon Gee, Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, and Jenrry Mejia would form an impressive mix of right-handed relievers in the Mets bullpen on Opening Day. But this has changed dramatically.

Gee is very likely to be in the team’s rotation, but he seems to have sudden competition from Rafael Montero, who was very impressive in his start against the Yankees yesterday. Ultimately, I expect Montero to be with the club in the mostly because Gee was struggling with his transition to relief earlier in camp, and there just isn’t any time left for him to go back to the bullpen and figure things out. But this is worth watching considering both will have a couple of more outings before the regular season begins.

It’s growing more and more unlikely Vic Black will be ready for Opening Day. He’s been sidelined for two weeks with pain and a weak shoulder, and his throwing program has been stalled as he has tried to rebound. He threw off flat ground on Tuesday in Port St. Lucie, but there is no timetable for a return to the mound, and time is simply running out.

If Black opens the year on the disabled list, that opens the door for Zack Thornton, Erik Goeddel, or Buddy Carlyle.  Of the three, only Goeddel is on the 40-man roster, but he has struggled. Thornton and Carlyle have had very good camps, and there will be some roster flexibility to add one or the other when the season starts.

My hunch is the job would go to Carlyle if Black can’t go. That way, they can preserve the player option they’d have to spend on Thornton when either Black or Bobby Parnell return.

Projection: Buddy Carlyle, Rafael Montero, Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia

Bench roles

I still think Campbell will make the team, and if Daniel Murphy is healthy, Ruben Tejada seems likely to be the backup middle infielder. But Murphy’s injury has afforded the club an extended look at Daniel Muno, and he has seized every opportunity he’s been given this spring.

The other day, I wondered if Muno could provide a better value to Tejada as the utility infielder, considering Muno is faster, has more power, is a switch hitter, and is 1/4 of the price. He has shown off this versatility with his .378 average, his three extra-base hits, his four walks and some exceptional defense in 19 games this spring.

Muno needs a 40-man roster spot, and with Tejada also having a very strong camp, I’m not sure if Muno’s time is now, but if Tejada struggles early, his time might be soon.

One player to watch will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He got off to a superb start this spring, but as has been the case most of his career, he has gone ice cold in recent games, striking out in 9 of his last 12 at-bats. He’s out of options so I expect he will make the club out of camp, but I’ve heard recently some with the club feel Matt den Dekker is the better choice. Den Dekker still has two player options left, so they could always bring him up later and figure out what to do with Nieuwenhuis then.

Projection: John Mayberry Jr., Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker, Ruben Tejada

Starting Rotation

The rotation undoubtedly has taken a hit with the loss of Zack Wheeler for the year. Fortunately, the Mets can turn to either Gee or Montero right now, and continue to watch the development of Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard under Wally Backman and Frank Viola in Las Vegas.

As I said, there are too many reasons why Gee should be in the rotation, so I think he’ll ultimately be there for the first part of the season.

Projection: Bartolo Colon, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee