Just Mets

In the wake of the news Zack Wheeler has become the latest pitcher to require a year long absence resulting from a torn elbow ligament, I’ve found myself asking a lot of questions internally.

I’m not talking about the issue surrounding these blown out elbows in the game. I talked about those here yesterday, and a problem has been clearly identified with only questions of how to resolve the problem.

The questions I’ve been debating internally are around the Mets and whether or not their plan can still work, in light of what’s happening to them and may other teams around baseball.

The path for success has been clear and simple for the Mets. It’s all about this young and powerful crop of hard throwing starting pitching. Sure, there’s Brandon Nimmo, Dilson Herrera, Michael Conforto, maybe Amed Rosario and a few other position player prospects down the road. But simply put, it seemed they were depending on Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, and now Steven Matz to perform and basically not get hurt.

Don’t get me wrong – I think this front office has done a fabulous job rebuilding the farm system, and the fact there is more than one notable position player prospect at St. Lucie and higher is incredible considering where they came from.

Still, last night I found myself having this debate. Maybe it was because I was having an immediate reaction to Wheeler’s injury. I don’t know for sure.

I realized last night the 2016 rotation could have four pitchers who have undergone Tommy John Surgery in their careers. They could have three arms in their bullpen who also have undergone the procedure as well.

That’s seven of their twelve potential 2016 pitchers who will have had Tommy John Surgery, which doesn’t predict what could always happen to anyone else at any given moment.

That’s remarkable and scary, and that’s what made me nervous last night.

Here’s the thing: it seems the Mets maybe realizing the same potential dilemma. Perhaps that started last summer when they decided not to retain Bartolo Colon, as I had heard he was viewed as an insurance policy to Harvey and Jon Niese. Now, he’s serving as insurance to Wheeler, and Dillon Gee could be viewed as insurance to one of Niese or Harvey. Or the other way around, depending on what you prefer. But, it’s easy to see the point.

Or, as Shannon from MetsPolice said to me so eloquently on Twitter yesterday, maybe these young arms with broken elbows are now insurance policies to Colon, Gee, and Niese now? Interesting thought.

At any rate, Terry Collins hinted at this notion on Monday.

“It’s why [Dillon Gee] is here,” Collins said on Monday. “He’ll be that guy [to replace Wheeler].”

Similarly, Sandy Alderson believes the Mets have an answer to losing Wheeler.

“Its a blow. But at the same time, we knew there would be a lot of uncertainty surrounding Zack and his elbow over the course of the season,” Alderson said on Monday. “We’re obviously not happy he won’t be with us, but if there’s a silver lining, there’s certainty and a solution for this.”

I took comfort re-reading these remarks. not so much because Gee is their immediate solution, but because they’ve clearly realized the problems and complexities surrounding pitchers – especially their own – are only growing. While they’re still banking on their core crop of young arms, they’re adjusting by hoarding more arms, even at the expense of filling other holes on the diamond. That’s a clear indication they’re not willing to shift from the aforementioned path to success, and that’s probably a good thing.

Right now, they’re all looking like geniuses because, as Sandy said, there are solutions to losing Wheeler. That wasn’t necessarily the case when they lost Harvey to the same problem a year and a half ago.

Still, who knows if this is all going to work. But while their eggs may still be in mostly on basket, they’re mitigating risk against their own strategy. While the plan may crack at times, they’re taking every step they can to ensure it doesn’t break.

That makes me still believe the plan can and will work.